Arsenal and Man City may be forced into Premier League title play-off match | Football | Sport

Arsenal and Manchester City are embroiled in a fierce battle for the Premier League title as the campaign hurtles towards its climax. Mikel Arteta and Pep Guardiola’s sides will clash in a monumental showdown at the Etihad on Sunday afternoon. The Gunners stumbled last Saturday, falling 2-1 to Bournemouth at the Emirates. The Citizens bounced back on Sunday to dismantle Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge, leaving City six points adrift of Arsenal, though with a game in hand ahead of this weekend’s crunch fixture.

The title race is very much alive and there is even the tantalising prospect that both sides could be forced to contest a title-deciding play-off should they finish the season level on points. However, several factors would need to align perfectly for this extraordinary scenario to materialise. Most crucially, Arsenal and City would need to share the spoils in a 1-1 draw at the Etihad on Sunday, mirroring the identical scoreline from their previous encounter at the Emirates back in September.

A number of additional criteria must also be satisfied for a sensational play-off to occur, with Arsenal having five matches remaining after Sunday while City have six. The primary tie-breaker employed to separate sides level on points at the season’s end is overall goal difference, in which Arsenal currently hold a three-goal advantage.

This is determined by deducting total goals conceded from total goals scored throughout the entire season. As fate would have it, City remain the only club in history to have clinched a Premier League title on goal difference.

This took place in 2012, when Sergio Aguero’s iconic winner against QPR saw the Sky Blues finish level on points with city rivals Manchester United, yet claim the title. Should City and Arsenal remain inseparable after goal difference, the second tie-breaker is the total number of goals scored, with just one between them at present in City’s slight favour.

If the sides still cannot be separated after those measures, then it comes down to their head-to-head record. Whichever side triumphs on Sunday would gain the advantage. Following that comes the most away goals scored in matches between the two sides.

However, should the upcoming fixture end 1-1, and all other statistical tie-breakers remain identical, we would then enter rare, breathtaking territory. This would mean both clubs had perfectly mirrored each other’s performance across every metric outlined by the regulations.

The final and most extraordinary contingency for a deadlocked title race is a one-off play-off match at a neutral ground. This could potentially be Wembley, though the Premier League handbook does not confirm this, most probably because it has never happened before, and City would perhaps feel that gives their London-based rivals an unfair advantage.

This winner-takes-all clash would only take place if the Premier League board concluded that the sides could not be separated by any other method. Matters could yet become even more extraordinary, however.

Should a play-off fixture be required and City and Arsenal remain level after 90 minutes, it would progress to 30 minutes of extra time.

If the stalemate still cannot be resolved following the additional period, a penalty shoot-out would then determine who the 2025/2026 champions are, and would undoubtedly, in an instant, become the most dramatic and breathtaking Premier League moment of all time.

The prospect could prove an unsettling one for Arsenal. The last winner-takes-all encounter between the two was March’s Carabao Cup final, where Guardiola’s side emerged as 2-0 victors, undoubtedly handing them a psychological edge should any play-off ever come to pass.