Max Verstappen and the Oscar Piastri swap deal amid McLaren talks | F1 | Sport

Red Bull’s regression means Max Verstappen is no longer Formula 1’s omnipotent force – yet, he continues to hold the grid in the palm of his hand. Because the four-time world champion is the key piece in the fascinating puzzle that is this season’s driver market.

‘Where will Max go?’ is the question that will continue to dominate news cycles for the next few months. His Red Bull deal runs until 2028 but that is virtually irrelevant, owing to the performance clause that means he can leave if he’s not second or higher in the championship by the summer break. Without a swift and significant improvement on his results so far this year, that is simply not going to happen.

There are three outcomes here, and only one would see Red Bull retain their most valuable asset. We can’t rule that out. Yes, Verstappen wants the quickest car he can get, but he has said many times before he would love to spend his whole career with the outfit. But there’s also the very real and significant threat of him quitting F1 altogether. Or worse: joining a rival team.

All Red Bull can do is keep developing their car as quickly as possible and show they’re making progress, like they did in Miami where the car was quick enough for Verstappen to qualify on the front row. Even that may not be enough, though, as Verstappen’s complaints have mostly been about the sport’s entire new formula, rather than just his own team’s difficulties.

Changes have been agreed in principle for the 2027 season which will change the current 50/50 split between combustion and electrical engine power to around 60/40, meaning less reliance on the much-maligned new batteries. That will help. But will it be enough for the sport to retain one of its biggest names? Time will tell.

Even if it is, there’s every chance he will be tempted by the prospect of having a Mercedes engine under him. Toto Wolff will surely throw everything at Verstappen if he thinks he has even the slightest chance of securing his signature. But he may have competition from McLaren as paddock whispers suggest talks have taken place with the Dutchman’s camp – even if CEO Zak Brown insists he is happy with his current pairing.

That could open the door for a sensational swap deal with Oscar Piastri potentially coming the other way. The Aussie is understood to be at the top of Red Bull’s list in case they do find themselves needing a replacement for their star man. Piastri, 25, would surely be the one replaced at McLaren, rather than Lando Norris.

Around half the grid is out of contract this year and all will be keeping an eye on what Verstappen does. Because they’re all chasing the quickest car they can get and many would fight over a potential vacancy at Red Bull. Alpine‘s pace this season has also given them power in the driver market to potentially sign a star if Franco Colapinto doesn’t build on his impressive performance in Miami.

Conversely, Williams risk losing one or both of Carlos Sainz and Alex Albon if they cannot turn around their flagging fortunes. Like many others, they too are believed to have performance clauses in their contracts and both are on Red Bull’s shortlist, as graduates of their driver academy.

As it stands, Ferrari expect to remain unchanged in 2027 but there’s always the chance that 41-year-old Lewis Hamilton could call it a day. If he does, junior driver Oliver Bearman is the clear choice by far to succeed his fellow Brit having starred with customer team Haas.

Aston Martin must also play a waiting game while Fernando Alonso, who turns 45 in July, decides what he wants to do. Though the Spaniard has hinted he is considering extending his stay again. He has previously said he would be less likely to retire in 2026 if his team were struggling, as he wants to be able to end his F1 career on a high. Lance Stroll looks likely to keep the other Aston Martin seat for as long as he wants it, given his father Lawrence owns the team.

At Cadillac, veterans Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas both signed multi-year deals when they agreed to join the fledgling project. Though the American outfit is keen to get Colton Herta into F1 and so one looks likely to be dropped in the next year or two, when the former IndyCar racer finally wins his FIA superlicence.

Also looking over his shoulder is Esteban Ocon, a fine racer who has been outgunned by his much younger and less experienced team-mate Bearman since joining Haas. The Frenchman is not believed to be in any immediate danger, but the expectations have been higher than his results so far and that will need to change, especially as Haas have started the season well and could be in a strong negotiating position in the coming months.

And then there’s the rest of the Red Bull picture. Isack Hadjar had a horrible weekend in Miami but, other than that, has made an acceptable start to life as Verstappen’s team-mate. Liam Lawson wants a second shot at the top Red Bull team but keeping his current seat is his first job, while teenager Arvid Lindblad is still finding his feet having stumbled since his superb debut in Melbourne.

There’s no junior prospect absolutely banging on the door right now, though Nikola Tsolov currently leads the Formula 2 standings after the first two rounds.

Not all of them will wait until Verstappen makes his move – that is months away and there are some drivers who would be risking their place on the 2027 grid completely if they were to leave it too late. But whatever the Dutchman decides to do, next year’s grid could look substantially different to how it does right now.