Andy Burnham is on a winning streak – got secret general election plot | Personal Finance | Finance
For years, Andy Burnham couldn’t get a break. He made two attempts to win the Labour leadership and flopped both times. Then, at the third attempt, everything fell into place. Just a few months ago he wasn’t even an MP. Angela Rayner, Ed Miliband and Wes Streeting were streaks ahead in the betting to replace PM Keir Starmer. Then Burnham somehow wangled a seat, won the Makerfield by-election and swept into Downing Street. He’s still pinching himself.
Everybody loves a winner and his first two weeks couldn’t have gone much better. He cuts a refreshingly human figure after two years of being governed by a speak-your-weight machine in an open-necked shirt. He’s spreading optimism around like margarine on a bap and voters seem happy to woof it down. They’ve swallowed his lavish spending promises too, and decided to worry about who’ll foot the bill later.
At the same time, Labour’s populist challengers on both left and right have suddenly run out of luck. The Green Party’s Zack Polanski nasty social media habit has caught up with him. All those fraud allegations against Reform UK’s Nigel Farage are starting to stick. Lucky Burnham. He’d be foolish to think this can last. Luck never does. Neither do political honeymoons.
It’s easy to forget now, but Starmer enjoyed a brief burst of popularity after the 2024 general election. It lasted about two weeks. Burnham’s easy manner is charming voters today but could just as easily be ridiculed as “vacuous twaddle”. At some point he’ll have to make decisions that cost people money, split his party and drain away today’s fragile feelgood factor. Then we’ll see.
The first rumblings can already be heard. Labour’s left is already getting twitchy over benefit cuts. The open borders brigade loathes Shabana Mahmood’s modest immigration crackdown, despite the horrific scenes from the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. Even Starmer loyalists – incredibly, there are some – have grievances. So Burnham faces a huge decision. Should he cash in his winning streak and call an early general election?
Voters are already taxed to the hilt, yet Burnham’s promises will require even more money. The world looks increasingly dangerous as war in the Middle East spreads. Oil prices could surge, inflation could return with a vengeance and our borrowing costs could climb even higher. As the crisis grows, Burnham is banging on about bus fares.
He’s also trapped by Labour’s 2024 manifesto, which ruled out rises in income tax, national insurance and VAT. That leaves him scrabbling around for ever more awkward ways to raise cash. A fresh election would let him seek a mandate for his own programme instead.
There are risks either way. Theresa May called an early election in 2017 to exploit her honeymoon and blew her majority. Gordon Brown toyed with going to the polls after replacing Tony Blair, but was dubbed “Bottler Brown” after losing his nerve. Then the financial crisis smashed his premiership.
If Burnham does call an election, he’ll be like a gambler sticking all his winnings on one last spin of the roulette wheel. My guess is he’ll bank them instead. But if the first big crisis sends his poll ratings into freefall, he may wish he’d thrown caution to the wind while Lady Luck was still smiling.
