Arsenal’s dream route to Champions League final mapped out | Football | Sport

Arsenal are absolutely flying in the Champions League – but the fine line between promise and glory could ultimately be shaped by the knockout draw. The Gunners have a 100 per cent record in the competition this season and need just a point in their final group game against bottom side Kairat to secure top spot.

Finishing first could prove pivotal to Arsenal‘s hopes of finally lifting the Champions League. Under the competition’s tennis-style seeding system, higher-ranked teams are rewarded with more favourable draws, reducing the risk of an early showdown with a European heavyweight. However, last season offered a stark warning when group winners Liverpool were handed a last-16 tie against PSG and exited the tournament prematurely. Arsenal will be desperate to avoid a similar fate, though much will depend on results elsewhere in the final round of fixtures. With that in mind, Express Sport has outlined Arsenal’s dream route to the 2026 Champions League final.

First and foremost, Mikel Arteta’s side will be focused on clinching top spot in the group. Arsenal currently sit three points clear at the summit and boast a superior goal difference to second-placed Bayern Munich, meaning that even a shock defeat against Kairat may not be enough to dislodge them.

If Arsenal do finish first, they would be placed on the opposite side of the draw to the second seed – likely Bayern, who are three points clear of third-placed Real Madrid – and could not face them until the final. A newly introduced UEFA rule further strengthens the value of a high finish, with the top two seeds guaranteed to play the second leg of their last-16, quarter-final and semi-final ties at home, offering a significant advantage in each decisive fixture.

Teams finishing in the top eight qualify automatically for the round of 16, while those placed between ninth and 24th must contest a two-legged play-off. The seeding for the play-off is straightforward: ninth faces 24th, 10th plays 23rd, 11th meets 22nd, and so on.

As prospective group winners, Arsenal would be drawn against the winners of a play-off between the teams finishing 15th and 18th. As it stands, that tie would be Juventus vs Qarabag. While the final round of group fixtures could still alter the picture, Qarabag would represent arguably the most favourable last-16 opponents available to the Gunners.

Victory there would likely set up a quarter-final against the team finishing eighth or ninth. At present, those positions are occupied by Chelsea and Barcelona. However, if 10th-placed Sporting were to climb a place or two, they would arguably emerge as Arsenal’s ideal opponents at that stage.

In the semi-finals, Arsenal would most likely come up against a side that ended the group phase in either third or fifth. Currently, those spots belong to Real Madrid and Tottenham. While a North London derby in the last four of the Champions League would carry obvious tension, the Gunners would most likely prefer that scenario given the calibre of the alternative, as well as Tottenham’s shaky domestic form this season.

As for the final, there are no truly comfortable match-ups – but meeting one of Europe’s elite teams isn’t necessarily guaranteed either. Potential opponents would likely come from the teams finishing second, fourth, sixth and seventh in the group phase, positions currently occupied by Bayern, Liverpool, PSG and Newcastle.

Liverpool’s stuttering domestic form would give Arsenal confidence heading into a showpiece against them, but in this scenario their ideal opponents would be Newcastle. The Magpies sit 17 points – and eight places – behind the Gunners in the Premier League and their relative lack of European pedigree and big-stage experience would see Arsenal enter the final as clear favourites.

Whatever happens, Arsenal’s fate will rest as much on their own consistency as the path laid out in front of them – and if Arteta’s side maintain their current continental form, this may well finally be their year on Europe’s biggest stage.