Donald Trump humiliates Putin by doing the one thing Russian warmonger can’t | World | News

Compare and contrast, if you will, two recent military coup de main operations. The first of these was Russia’s attempt in February 2022 to decapitate Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ’s government in Kyiv, replace it with a pro-Moscow administration, and subsume Ukraine back into greater Russia. The second was the very recent operation by US troops in Venezuela which basically sought to do the same thing, albeit without swallowing up that country into the USA, not yet anyway.

The first was an abject failure. Initially, Russian forces captured areas in the north and west of Kyiv, and it looked as if the city would fall. However, the Ukrainians had pre-emptively dispersed their forces, and subsequent resistance sapped Russian momentum. Russian efforts at encirclement were thwarted, and their forces were ultimately defeated, in what was planned to be a short operation lasting days, after weeks of fighting.

What went wrong? Put simply, the Russians underestimated the opposition – a classic invitation to military disaster – and the context. Far from collapsing and welcoming the invaders with open arms the Ukrainians resisted firmly and courageously. And have continued to resist for four more years.

The USA operation in Venezuela, on the other hand, took no chances. Maduro cannot complain that he was taken by surprise, for US forces had telegraphed that something was going to happen for months, assembling a large fleet offshore and gathering forces in nearby US bases.

When the operation was implemented it was launched at breakneck speed and in overwhelming strength – involving 150 aircraft of various types alone.

And the US special forces were forensic in focus, having rehearsed with full size models of the Maduro compound before they went in. In less than three hours it was all over, a triumph of arms.

What happens next in Venezuela is a much more interesting question, and my guess is that the Trump administration doesn’t really have a clue.

Exit strategies have never been America’s strongest suit, as recent adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan amply illustrate. But for the moment Trump has pulled it off, the legality or illegality of the operation notwithstanding.

Putin, meanwhile, is stuck in the morass of the Ukraine war, which has now degenerated into a series of costly to-and-fro attacks with huge casualties for little gain.

Indeed, it may be that Russia has reached its culminating point in the conflict, not strong enough to progress but not so weak that it has to withdraw.

The portents for him are not good; international sanctions continue to bite and there is evidence that his armed forces’ morale is poor. Tales of drunkenness, indiscipline, and disobedience of orders abound.

Even Russia has limits to how much manpower it can feed into the maw of conflict, and its economy is struggling to keep up with the war’s demands.

It may be that 2026 will see the Russian people say enough is enough and demand an end to the war. A mutiny in the Russian army and its leaders in the face of more increasingly pointless attacks is a possibility – look what happened to the French army in 1917 after the failure of the Nivelle offensives – but no more than that. Putin’s iron grip seems secure for the moment.

As for Trump, well, his dilettante and transactional approach to international politics is likely to continue. Having sown chaos in Caracas he may well wash his hands of Venezuela altogether and turn his attention elsewhere.

Colombia, Mexico, or Cuba could be next. The latter is a long term political antagonist, whilst the former two are from where most of the cocaine being shipped into the USA is manufactured or transits.

And he has previously expressed a desire to “take back” the Panama Canal and incorporate Greenland into the USA which “needs it for security”.

These are dangerous times. In the meantime, the Ukraine war rumbles on with no end in sight and no real desire from Putin to bring it to a negotiated end. Unless something dramatic happens, I think we’ll still be talking about it this time next year.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk