F1 predictions: Norris won’t defend title and Verstappen will retire | F1 | Sport

It’s time – Formula One is back this weekend with the 2026 season-opening Australian Grand Prix. It’s a year of change in F1, with the sport’s new regulations casting a cloud of uncertainty over who exactly will be the fastest team, and the fastest driver, in Melbourne.

Cars are lighter and smaller, but will also be slower. There are now 11 teams on the grid, with Cadillac making their debut and Sauber rebranding as Audi. Pre-season testing indicated that Mercedes and Ferrari look well-placed to benefit from the rule changes, but McLaren and Britain’s reigning world champion Lando Norris will hope to have something to say about that. Ahead of the curtain-raiser Down Under, the Express Sport team predict how they think the season will pan out.

Daniel Moxon: George Russell – he always holds himself well, but had a swagger in pre-season like no one else. Russell knows his car and engine are good and proved last year he’s ready to extract the maximum. Team-mate Kimi Antonelli will be better in his sophomore season, but not yet consistent enough to trouble pre-season favourite Russell.

Charlie Malam: Mercedes are the pre-season favourites, and George Russell looks ready to mount his first truly serious title challenge. Last year was his best season yet, and I think the Brit will improve again this time around, and win more races in 2026 than he has in his entire 152-race F1 career so far (five).

Archie Griggs: George Russell has improved considerably over the years and finally looks to have a title-competing Mercedes at his disposal. If their engine advantage is as strong as predicted, he could be very tough to beat over the course of the season.

Luke Chillingsworth: George Russell – Mercedes have been among the favourites for 2026 long before pre-season testing at Barcelona. Russell has the nous to finally challenge for the title after proving to be one of the grid’s star talents in recent years. Whenever Mercedes had a sniff of a win in 2025, Russell brought it home, he should get a a lot of chances to hit P1 in 2026 and that makes him the favourite ahead of Australia.

Dan Burnham: Max Verstappen. I’d probably be more likely to get this right by putting a blindfold on and throwing a dart at pictures of all 22 drivers. But if in doubt, you back Verstappen. Yawn, I know. But experience, even if it’s a whole new world for all, is invaluable.

Nathan Ridley: George Russell. Having always been there or thereabouts in 2025, I reckon Russell will step up this season and be standing on top of the podium come Abu Dhabi. There’ll be lots of twists and turns, and who knows if Mercedes’ power unit will actually be the strongest? But I’m backing the Brit.

Daniel Moxon: Mercedes. They’ve got the engine advantage until June 1 – that’s seven Grands Prix and three Sprints – to give themselves a head-start. And Merc are too good at making engines to be too badly affected, even when the revised compression ratio laws come into effect. McLaren can push them, but integrating a new engine as a customer takes time to get right, and that could cost them.

Charlie Malam: Lewis Hamilton said he’s reset, refreshed and excited. With the ground-effect cars now gone, Ferrari could have the best duo on the grid in Leclerc and Hamilton. I think it’s finally the year the Scuderia end their 18-year wait for a title, even if they can’t take the Drivers’ Championship. Leclerc will finish back inside the top three of the standings.

Archie Griggs: Mercedes will be able to run their current power unit until June and shouldn’t have too much trouble adapting when they are forced to tweak it. That should be enough to put them front and centre in the battle for Constructors’ Championship glory, barring a monumental late-season collapse.

Luke Chillingsworth: Although Mercedes look to have the quickest car, Ferrari were another standout performer in Bahrain testing and could be close to the Silver Arrows. I still feel Kimi Antonelli is a bit too inconsistent to seriously challenge for the title, and the experience and talent of Charles Leclerc and Lewis Hamilton could see the Scuderia wrap up a first team title since 2008.

Dan Burnham: As tempting as it may be to default to the team with the best driver line-up in Ferrari, there’s not a cat in hell’s chance I’m falling into that trap unless they’d had a complete overhaul of their clearly problematic way of working. Kimi Antonelli can step up in his second season to offer the proper support to Russell.

Nathan Ridley: Mercedes. I’m almost more confident in saying this than I am in Russell’s win. With him and Kimi Antonelli in their cars, the Silver Arrows could soon emerge as the strongest driver line-up on the grid. Mercedes have done it before on a regulation change, and I fancy history to repeat itself.

Daniel Moxon: At least three drivers will lose their seats for 2027, or before – and that’s not including if Fernando Alonso and Lewis Hamilton retire. I’m looking at Esteban Ocon, Franco Colapinto and one of the Cadillac veterans as the most under threat, while Isack Hadjar and Liam Lawson also have a lot of work ahead to keep their Red Bull places.

Charlie Malam: In 2024, we had seven different race winners. Let’s go bold – we’ll get at least another seven across this season’s 24 races too. Max Verstappen, Leclerc and Russell feel like bankers. Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri should win at least one each, too. Hamilton will get his first victory since Spa 2024. Finally, I’ll stick my neck out and say Pierre Gasly, with his second-ever race win, will complete the set.

Archie Griggs: Christian Horner will return to the paddock in some form or another before the end of the season. The man just can’t stay out of the limelight and will worm his way back into the fold by hook or by crook, with Alpine being touted as a likely destination.

Luke Chillingsworth: As F1’s new entrants, Cadillac are probably tipped by many to finish at the very back of the grid in Australia. But Aston Martin may prove them wrong. The squad has some of the best facilities in F1, Adrian Newey and a still-talented Fernando Alonso, but delivered one of the most disastrous pre-season testing campaigns in recent years. This is a team in a complete mess and will likely be F1’s tailgaters early on.

Dan Burnham: Max Verstappen to end his career on a high and wave goodbye as champion.

Nathan Ridley: Oscar Piastri will decide to leave McLaren. Speaking of strong line-ups, I can’t see the Norris-Piastri dynamic reaching 2027. There’s increasing tension between the two, and they’ll both want force Andrea Stella’s hand mid-season and assert themselves as McLaren’s number one. Norris is Mr Papaya, and I think it’ll result in Piastri moving to Aston Martin next year.