Hurricane watch for Caymans, tropical storm warning for Jamaica as system in Caribbean expected to strengthen

The National Hurricane Center has posted a hurricane watch for the Cayman Islands and a tropical storm warning for Jamaica due to a weather system in the Caribbean that’s expected to strengthen.

If it becomes a tropical storm, it would be named Rafael.

“The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or storm today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter,” the center said Monday morning. “The system is expected to move near Jamaica this evening, be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday” and “could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands and Cuba.”

As of 7 a.m. EST Monday, the disturbance was some 220 miles sough of Kingston, Jamaica and 425 miles southeast of Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands and moving north at 7 mph with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph, the center reported.

Once its top sustained winds hit 39 mph, it would be deemed a tropical storm. Maximum sustained winds of 74 mph are needed for classification as a hurricane.

The Miami-based hurricane center said heaviest rainfall is forecast to occur over Jamaica and parts of Cuba through mid-week.

“Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba, with mudslides possible,” the center noted.

Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeast United States in mid- to late week, the center said.

CBS News meteorologist Nicolette Nolan says the system is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico.

“Models are in disagreement of where it will track after it reaches the Gulf,” Nolan says, “but the Gulf coasts from Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida need to be on alert for impacts at the end of the week.”