Is America on the cusp of a farm crisis?

Fourth-generation Iowa farmer Mark Mueller is no stranger to the ups and downs of the agriculture industry. But right now, he thinks America is on the cusp of a farm crisis.

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“I am more concerned now than I have been in my 30 years of farming,” Mueller told NBC News.

Even before the Iran war, Mueller said, many farmers felt they were being squeezed. Consolidation in the fertilizer industry and increased competition from abroad have resulted in higher prices for fertilizer and feed — and smaller returns on Mueller’s corn and soybean crops.

Many farmers who couldn’t pay their bills in recent years went under. In 2025, the number of Chapter 12 farm bankruptcies reached 315, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. That was up 46% from the previous year.

Now, the Iran war is putting even more pressure on farmers.

Before the war, roughly a third of the world’s fertilizer ingredients and a fifth of its oil supplies passed every day through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran’s southern coast. But since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28, the strait has been effectively closed by Tehran, leaving scores of tankers stranded.

The strait’s closure has driven up global prices for fertilizer and for the diesel fuel that powers most of America’s heavy agricultural equipment.

The double whammy is hitting farmers just as they head into the spring planting season.

“This is that perfect storm where everything comes together and hammers the farmer,” said Mueller, who also serves as the president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association.

Mueller said his fertilizer supplier was selling a nitrogen fertilizer he needs for $795 per ton on Feb. 22, a few days before the war started. At the end of March, it was $990, Mueller said, a nearly $200 jump in just a few weeks.

Meanwhile, the price he’s paying for diesel has jumped, too. Diesel is now averaging $5.51 nationwide, up from $3.76 right before the war, according to AAA.

Mueller said he got most of the fertilizer he needs for spring before the war — but had to buy some at the higher prices. He’s holding off on purchasing the additional fertilizer he needs for summer, hoping prices will come down.

President Donald Trump’s tariffs have also added to the cost of goods that farmers import from overseas — and frustrated many of the foreign buyers of America’s agricultural products.

“Our government made our life more difficult by walking away from trade deals or instituting tariffs or just basically making our customers angry — our customers being other nations and companies in other nations,” said Mueller.y

Lance Lillibridge, a corn and cattle farmer from Vinton, Iowa, told NBC News he plans to use less fertilizer this year.

“I’m probably going to see a reduction in yield,” said Lillibridge. “If there’s not the supply out there, then the price is going to go up.”

If the war continues, the higher prices could ripple through the supply chain and ultimately result in higher prices at the supermarket.

“We’re talking about all the crops and all the food products that we consume on a daily basis,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon.

“Anything that is grown and that requires fertilizers, which is most of everything that we consume, is potentially affected by this rise in fertilizer prices,” said Daco. “And as a result, we may see these prices rise rapidly across grocery stores in the U.S.”

Take corn, for example. If corn prices spike, then feeding cattle becomes more expensive for many farmers. Plus cattle farmers are also dealing with the higher fuel prices. The cost of beef has already hit record highs — in part from shrinking cattle herds and drought — and it could surge even more.

“I worry about how much more consumers will continue to pay for beef,” said Will Harris, a fourth-generation cattle farmer in Bluffton, Georgia. “I think that I can produce it as cheap as anybody else, but I don’t know where consumers draw their lines.”

It may take a while for price increases on the farm to show up at the grocery store. Farmers are just planting their spring crops now, and it could take months for them to be harvested and sent off to distribution centers and eventually grocery stores.

But consumers may see higher prices sooner rather than later, because of higher transport costs with pricier diesel.

“If you’re feeling these costs now, it’s only going to continue to increase as the supply chain fills with higher-cost goods,” said Lillibridge.

“Corn is used in over 4,000 products,” he added. “It’s not just food — it’s industrial products, like your paper that you would put in your printer has cornstarch in it, plastics, just tons of things have industrial uses from corn.”

Economists say the longer the war stretches on, the larger the effects could be.

“Right now, our farmers can get the product — it’s just really expensive,” said Faith Parum, an economist at the American Farm Bureau Federation, an advocacy group for farmers and ranchers. “We’re slowly starting to hear the longer this goes on, we’re also going to have issues with even the availability of the fertilizer.”

That could further strain farmers.

“We’re going on to year four of losses across the farm economy,” said Parum. “It’s going to become harder and harder for them to put a crop in the ground.”

Prior to the war, the Department of Agriculture estimated that farm sector debt could reach a record $624.7 billion in 2026.

Farmers have received some financial assistance from the federal government over the years. In December, the Trump administration announced a new tranche of $12 billion in aid to farmers.

At a White House event for farmers in March, Trump said that he would push for more aid and urged Congress to pass a new farm bill.

Trump also pledged to ask Congress to permit year-round sales of E15, an unleaded fuel blended with 15% ethanol that the American Farm Bureau Federation says could save consumers money at the gas pump and create markets for American-grown crops.

Mueller was among the farmers last month at the White House, where he listened to Trump.

“I guess I would liken it to empty calories,” he said of the president’s remarks. “It was like a pep rally with very little being said.”

Mueller fears that the mounting pressures on farmers, exacerbated by the war, could lead some to hang up their hats for good.

“I really do see fewer farmers when it’s all done,” he said. “In the end, the consumer will still have fewer choices, probably have a little higher prices, and farmers will have less margin than they did before.”