Next tropical weather threat could form in Caribbean this week. Will it move towards Florida’s Gulf Coast?

The last day of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season is Nov. 30, but as we near that finishing line, the Caribbean has other thoughts in mind, with a potential tropical system brewing.  

The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 90% chance of formation in the next two days over the western Caribbean. With the high confidence level of this disturbance, hurricane hunters took off from Biloxi, Mississippi, at 12 p.m. ET Wednesday en route to investigate this area and determine the strength and structure of the developing weather system. Another flight is scheduled for Thursday morning for additional monitoring. 

With the low pressure system in place in the western Caribbean, conditions are favorable for the formation of a tropical system. Forecast models take in the current environmental factors along with historical data to compute “spaghetti plots” of where systems may track. Each model uses different computations, which explains how the forecast track is an output of the consensus from those models.  

This system’s strength is determined based on how much fuel it has — factors such as being in a favorable environment over warm waters, low wind shear, no intercepting fronts — and how long it remains in those favorable conditions. No matter its strength, the forecast models have it lingering in the western Caribbean through the weekend before turning to the north and into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. 

After entering the Gulf, the consensus of the forecast models has it making a right-hand turn and heading toward Florida by late next week. If it does reach tropical storm strength, the next name on the list is Sara. 

A lot can happen between now and next week and conditions can quickly change, but areas like Jamaica and the Cayman Islands need to brace for heavy rains in the next few days. Florida residents should continue to monitor the forecast as updates come in.