Poland election: EU dealt blow as Trump-backed candidate seals victory | World | News

Karol Nawrocki, a right-winger backed by US President Donald Trump, has won Poland’s presidential runoff, according to final results released on Monday – a result all but guaranteed to complicate relations with the European Union. Mr Nawrocki won 50.89% of the vote, narrowly defeating liberal Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, who secured 49.11%. The result followed a highly polarised race that laid bare deep divisions in Polish society and drew significant international attention.

The contest was closely watched both in Poland and abroad. An early exit poll released Sunday evening indicated Mr Trzaskowski was ahead, but later returns reversed that picture, in an outcome which mirrored that of the Brexit referendum in the UK nine years ago. The final tally confirmed a narrow win for Mr Nawrocki, whose campaign drew strong support from nationalist and conservative voters.

The result is expected to shift Poland toward a more populist and nationalist approach, in line with the previous Law and Justice administration, which governed from 2015 to 2023.

Mr Nawrocki’s victory is also likely to present new obstacles for Prime Minister Donald Tusk and his centrist coalition, particularly in their efforts to align more closely with EU priorities.

Although most executive power in Poland lies with the Prime Minister, the President is not a ceremonial figure. The office carries the power to veto legislation and influence foreign policy, meaning Mr Nawrocki’s presidency will have significant political weight.

He will replace outgoing conservative President Andrzej Duda, whose second and final term ends on August 6. Under the Polish constitution, the president serves a five-year term and may be re-elected once.

Mr Tusk, who returned to office in late 2023, has struggled to implement several key policy promises, including reforms to Poland’s restrictive abortion law and legislation allowing civil partnerships for same-sex couples. Many of these efforts have been blocked by President Duda’s use of the veto.

Mr Nawrocki’s election means Mr Tusk will now face a new conservative president, also expected to use veto power to block progressive legislation. That could make it significantly more difficult for Mr Tusk’s government to deliver on campaign promises, including those tied to restoring judicial independence — a key point of contention with the EU.

The EU has long raised concerns over changes to Poland’s court system introduced under the previous Law and Justice government. Brussels has argued those reforms undermine democratic checks and balances. Mr Tusk had pledged to reverse them, but Mr Duda’s vetoes stalled any progress.

Some analysts in Poland have warned that continued deadlock over such issues could weaken Mr Tusk’s position before the next scheduled parliamentary elections in 2027, especially if Law and Justice signals a willingness to cooperate with more conservative elements within the current coalition.

Mr Nawrocki, 42, is a historian and former amateur boxer. He previously headed the Institute of National Remembrance, a state body responsible for investigating crimes committed under Nazi and Communist rule. During his tenure, he advocated for removing monuments honouring the Soviet Red Army, a move that led to Russia placing him on a wanted list, according to Polish media.

His appointment as the Law and Justice presidential candidate marked an attempt by the party to put forward a new figure unconnected with past controversies. Despite having no previous experience in elected office, he gained traction among voters who supported the party’s nationalist and socially conservative positions.

Mr Nawrocki’s critics have pointed to his lack of political experience and raised questions over alleged past connections to criminal figures, as well as his involvement in a street brawl. He has denied any criminal ties and described the fight as a “noble” act. The revelations did not appear to weaken his support among right-wing voters.

During the campaign, Mr Nawrocki positioned himself as a defender of traditional values. He drew support from groups opposed to secular reforms and LGBTQ+ visibility, and framed his candidacy as a continuation of policies aimed at preserving Polish identity.

The campaign also featured close ties to the United States under President Trump. Mr Nawrocki was welcomed to the White House several weeks before the election, and the conservative group CPAC hosted its first meeting in Poland shortly before the vote. US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, a prominent Trump ally, attended the event and publicly encouraged Poles to vote for Mr Nawrocki.

There are currently around 10,000 US troops stationed in Poland. Ms Noem suggested that military cooperation could deepen under Mr Nawrocki’s leadership.

At campaign events, US flags were frequently visible, and Mr Nawrocki’s supporters often praised his alignment with Mr Trump. Many said they believed he would foster stronger ties with the United States, particularly under a second Trump administration.

On foreign policy, Mr Nawrocki has said he will continue to support Ukraine in its war with Russia, but he has also criticised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He accused Mr Zelenskyy of exploiting the support of Poland and other allies, and argued that Ukrainian refugees had placed a strain on Poland’s social services.

He pledged to prioritise Polish citizens when it comes to access to healthcare and education — a position that drew criticism from liberal opponents but helped galvanise support among nationalist voters.

The result places Poland back in a more confrontational stance toward the EU, which had previously hoped that a change in presidential leadership would ease tensions over rule-of-law issues and restore closer cooperation with Brussels.

Mr Nawrocki’s presidency will begin in August, and his decisions are likely to shape both domestic policy and Poland’s international relationships in the years ahead.