The five elections that could change the face of the EU in 2024 | World | News
Ms von der Leyen hopes to retain her spot – but several far-right groups are moving in on the EU (Image: Getty)
2024 will see a huge proportion of the world’s population voting for new leaders – with some elections critical in deciding the future of the planet.
An estimated two billion people, across 50 countries, will be heading to the polls, reports Euronews – more than any other year in history. Autocratic states such as Russia, Belarus and Iran are among those voting, with critics pointing out that these elections are all but already decided by authoritarian regimes.
But for other countries, their future leader is far less clear, and could have a devastating impact on the European Union. Here we take a look at the five most crucial elections in this year for the future of the continent and everyone within it.
1. US presidential election, November 5
Mr Trump is among the several controversial candidates that could secure an election in 2024 (Image: Getty)
Donald Trump’s election to the White House in 2016 already felt like an enormous shift in US politics – but it is set to be all the more dramatic in 2024 as the Republican candidate eyes the top job even as he faces a multitude of lawsuits.
His bid to return as leader has already hit stumbling blocks following the TV star’s actions when he last sat in Washington. Colorado’s Supreme Court has ruled he cannot run in the state because of his actions ahead of the January 2021 Capitol Hill attack.
It has been rumoured that other states may follow. But his comfortable position ahead of any other Republican candidates mean the populist politician may yet weather the storm.
If the GOP does return to power in the US, a key impact worldwide would be the likely adjustment to their strategy on Ukraine. Some wings of the party are known to be pushing for lessening military and financial aid to Kyiv.
It will also have key impacts on trade with Europe, as Trump in past added tariffs on European imports to favour American produce. He has already vowed to introduce a 10 percent tariff on all foreign imports, if elected.
2. European Parliament election, June 6-9
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The EU’s 27 member countries will be heading to the voting booth in summer to elect representatives to the European Parliament. While over 400 million are eligible to vote, turnout tends to be poor for the election – leaving space open for more dedicated, polarised candidates to sweep in.
There has been a recent surge in support for far-right parties who are also more sceptical of the bloc, as shown by increasing votes for such candidates in the Netherlands, Italy, Finland, and Sweden.
The far-right Identity and Democracy group is currently predicted to reach a record high of 87 seats in the 720 member parliament. This would make it the third-biggest part in the bloc.
The prominence of such an extreme movement taking a major position alongside the two leading moderate liberal and conservative groups could massively impact the overall direction of the EU.
President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to run again for the top job in the European Commission.
3. Portugal legislative election, March 10
Pedro Nuno Santos is one among several far right candidates edging towards victory this year (Image: Getty)
Portugal is facing a snap election this year after its prime minister stepped down. António Costa was forced from his spot in a massive corruption ivnestigation, and has remained in a caretaker role ever since.
His party, the Socialist Party, is hoping to hang on to power with its new leader Pedo Nuno Santos. It is currently tied with its right-wing opposition the Social Democratic Party.
But Portugal could be the latest country in Europe facing a surge in the far-right with Chega.
The challenger party is currently polling at 17 percent – while the other two major parties are tied at 27 percent. The rhetoric used by the party has been accused of being racist, anti-LGBTQ+, anti-immigrant, and anti-Roma.
4. Belgium federal election, June 9
On the same day as the European election, Belgium will be voting for its new parliament.
Its coalition government currently consists of seven different parties.
Again, Belgium is facing a rise in support for the far-right. Flemish independentists Vlaams Belang are leading in Flanders, along with the Socialist Party in Wallonia, and the liberals in Brussels.
The current seven-party coalition is believed to be on track to reach enough support to remain in power. However, support for Prime Minister Alexander de Croo is waning.
He is polling historically low in in his home turf of Flanders, primarily as a result of a recent terrorist attack in Brussels and his condemnation of Israel for its siege of Gaza.
5. Austria legislative election – expected to be in autumn
In a familiar story, Austria is also facing a far-right rise in power.
Its Freedom Party of Austria is currently polling at 30 percent of the vote. It has ridden off the back of anti-lockdown policies and criticism fo the EU’s sanctions on Russia.
Like other far-right parties, the group weaponises populist rhetoric to gain support and capitalised on infighting between parties closer to the center.
After securing 16.2 percent of the vote in 2019 and growing ever since, there remains a possibility that the far-right party could secure the election, further turning the EU’s dangerous rise in far-right support into real legislative power.