UK ‘first-in-line’ for multi-billion dollar Venezuela oil windfall | UK | News
UK energy giant Shell could earn billions of dollars from new Venezuelan gas projects following Donald Trump’s ousting of Nicolás Maduro.
According to the Telegraph, the British oil company wants to target the rich gas fields lying between Venezuela and the neighbouring offshore islands of Trinidad and Tobago but has faced years of delay linked to US sanctions.
Mr Trump’s intervention means a potential acceleration of the massive Dragon gas field project, which lies in Venezuelan waters. The project could generate an estimated $500m (£370m) in revenues annually for up to three decades, amounting to a multi-billion dollar opportunity.
The Dragon field holds an estimated 120 billion cubic metres of gas, or around three times as much as the UK uses in a year. Far larger deposits sit in fields nearby.
Development of the project has stalled amid wrangling with US authorities over licencing but Shell is expected to renew its focus on Venezuela following Mr Trump’s intervention.
US companies to lead the way, UK and European majors to follow
The US president has called on oil companies to invest in the country to boost oil and gas production and improve infrastructure – though he has specifically called for US businesses to lead the way, suggesting Shell may need to seek a partner.
Ashley Kelty, of investment bank Panmure Liberum, said: “The big winners are going to be the US majors, Chevron in particular because it is already active in Venezuela.”
“The European majors will get locked out of the best stuff but will get invited in afterwards because American companies will want joint ventures to spread the risk – and companies like Shell and BP will be first choice.”
Shell was approached by the Express for comment via email.
BP also has a smaller interest in the region that may be revived. BP won an exploration and production licence for the Manakin-Cocuina field in 2024 but its US approvals were revoked by the Trump administration in April last year. BP has been lobbying for them to be reinstated.
Oil companies cautious amid uncertainty
Oil companies have so far avoided saying publicly whether they will invest in Venezuela amid uncertainty around its future. Chevron, which already operates there under government supervision, is the only global supermajor to have commented.
A spokesman said: “Chevron remains focused on the safety and wellbeing of our employees, as well as the integrity of our assets. We continue to operate in full compliance with all relevant laws and regulations.”
However, Venezuela represents a huge investment opportunity. The Latin American country sits on the world’s largest oil reserves but ranks just 20th in the world in terms of production.
Opec’s weakening control and potential market volatility
While the opening up of Venezuela is a boost for Western companies, it is a disaster for Opec, the cartel of oil producing nations.
The bloc, led by Saudi Arabia, aims to control production and so ensure members get the best price for their oil, especially from western Europe, the US and China.
However, Mr Trump’s promise to ramp up Venezuelan production threatens to undermine Opec’s already-weakening control and lower the oil price. Investors were braced for potential volatility in global markets as a result.
Ahmed Khuzaie, a political consultant from Bahrain, said: “Of course the Gulf states are worried because that will mean they will have to readjust their margins, which will affect their way of life.”
Greg Newman, the chief executive of London-based oil markets trader Onyx Capital, said: “Opec’s control of global oil supply and demand is already fragile. If the US increases Venezuelan production, this will tip the global markets into surplus, potentially with one to two million barrels a day of excess oil on top of markets that are already in long-term decline.”
“Trump is very likely going to get his desired low oil prices now and even more importantly, [it will] give him considerable control over the whole global oil market and its flows.”
Opec’s attempt to support oil prices
Oil prices dropped by 18pc in 2025 in a sign of Opec’s waning power over the market. It marked the biggest annual drop since the 2020 pandemic.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) was set up in 1960 with Venezuela as one of its five founding members along with Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, Iraq. It now has 12 member countries and another 10 in Opec+, including Russia.
Opec+ agreed to pause supply increases in the first quarter of 2026 at a meeting on Sunday, an attempt to support the oil price.
