Andy Burnham plans first big decision as PM – will blow up in his face | Personal Finance | Finance

Obviously, he may never get that far. He first has to beat off Nigel Farage’s Reform UK to win a seat at Westminster at the upcoming Makerfield by-election. Then he has to shove Starmer aside and grab the keys to Number 10. But if he does succeed, then his troubles really begin. Burnham may be a better communicator than Starmer, but I can’t see what else he offers. Like the PM, he’s already left a trail of humiliating U-turns. Worse, he’s likely to drag Labour even further to the left, even though voters have had enough of rising taxes, collapsing growth and soaring benefits.

If Burnham does oust Starmer, he’ll enjoy a brief honeymoon as the nation breathes a sigh of relief at being shot of Starmer. It won’t last. As the Iran war drags on, Britain faces a summer inflationary shock and possible fuel shortages. That’s on top of all the damage chancellor Rachel Reeves has inflicted on us. Which has led to growing talk that Burnham will make the most of his shortlived honeymoon by calling a snap election.

There’s logic to the decision. Starmer won a landslide in 2024, but it wasn’t long before voters turned on Labour. Burnham knows he has a far better chance of winning an election directly after taking power, than after several years of scandals, crisis and U-turns.

Burnham would also face a legitimacy problem. Any PM who reaches No 10 through an internal coup rather than a general election lacks a direct mandate from voters.

Replacing Starmer would be no picnic. If Burnham hikes taxes further, hard-pressed working people will explode. If he cuts spending, Labour MPs, unions and activists will revolt. If he borrows more, the bond market will savage him. That’s another reason to go to the country early.

But it still wouldn’t be an easy decision. Voters have seen through this Labour Party. There’s no chance that he’ll repeat Keir Starmer’s astonishing 2024 success. Millions would happily queue round the block to exact revenge on Rachel Reeves, Ed Miliband, Angela Rayner and the rest. All of which makes Labour MPs extremely nervous.

They’ll have done the numbers. Labour currently holds 402 seats. More than half could go, consigning scores of MPs to the dole queue. Thanks to Reeves, that’s not a good place to be right now.

Burnham might think he can muddle into Number 10 by scraping together a so-called progressive alliance with Zack Polanski’s Green Party and the Lib Dems. He could then unleash a full tax-and-spend agenda secure in the knowledge that another election is five years away. But the price of failure would be high.

If Burnham ousts Starmer and gets comfy in Number 10, he may ultimately reach the same conclusion as his MPs. He’d rather enjoy three years in power than risk throwing away his lifelong dream in one reckless gamble. While making Nigel Farage‘s dream come true. Which means it could be time for another U-turn.