State pension increase could be decided within days as key triple lock date looms | Personal Finance | Finance

may want to look out for a key figure set to be published next week which could determine the payment increase next April.

The will be announced next week, which is the one used for the triple lock metric that determines how much payments go up the following year.

However, analysts are predicting the key figure that will decide the state pension increase will in fact be the average earnings figure for the three months to July, which was at 8.5 percent.

Inflation was at 6.3 percent for the year to August and is unlikely to have jumped up to above 8.5 percent over the past month.

Becky O’Connor, director of Public Affairs, said: “For pensioners, it looks almost a dead cert that the state pension is set to rise in line with earnings rather than inflation next April, as the triple lock dictates that it increases with whichever is the highest of earnings, inflation or 2.5 percent.

“That’s unless the UK Government chooses to break or manipulate the lock to make the rise more manageable to the public purse.”

The ensures the state pension increases each year in line with the highest of inflation, the rise in average earnings or 2.5 percent.

This past April, state pensioners received a record 10.1 percent increase in line with last September’s inflation figure, raising the question of whether the Government can afford such large increases over the long term.

With payments likely to increase by 8.5 percent next April in line with average earnings, there have been reports that ministers are considering using a lower earnings figure not including worker bonuses, of 7.8 percent.

How much could the state pension increase?

This is how much the full new and full basic state pension would increase, with either an 8.5 percent or 7.8 percent increase:

Full new state pension

  • Weekly: £203.85
  • Every four-week pay period: £815.40.

7.8 percent uprating – £11,427 (up £827)

  • Weekly: £219.75
  • Every four-week pay period: £879.

8.5 percent uprating – £11,502 (up £902)

  • Weekly: £221.20
  • Every four-week pay period: £884.80.

Full basic state pension

  • Weekly: £156.20
  • Every four-week pay period: £624.80.

7.8 percent uprating – £8,756 (up £634)

  • Weekly: £168.40
  • Every four-week pay period: £673.55.

8.5% uprating April 2024 – £8,814 (up £692)

  • Weekly: £169.50
  • Every four-week pay period: £678.00.

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