Supercomputer predicts England to win World Cup despite nightmare draw | Football | Sport

England got their World Cup campaign started with a bang as they put four goals past Croatia in a fearsome attacking performance in Dallas, Texas. And now, the Three Lions have been tipped by a supercomputer to go all the way in the United States, despite having a nightmarish path to next month’s final. A brace from captain Harry Kane and second-half goals from Jude Bellingham and Marcus Rashford saw England blow their opponents away in their Group L opener.

A devastating display in attack made amends for some defensive lapses in the first half, and only Croatia goalkeeper Dominik Livakovic – who made seven saves – stopped it being a rout. And a supercomputer produced after England’s 4-2 defeat of Croatia reckons that Thomas Tuchel truly is bringing football back home in a few weeks’ time.

The FindSisterSites World Cup supercomputer gives England an 18.20% chance of reaching the World Cup final. That is higher than all 47 other countries competing in the US, Canada and Mexico with France their favoured opponents.

The supercomputer suggests England will face France at the MetLife Stadium, branded as the New York New Jersey Stadium for the World Cup, on July 17. And it’s predicted that the Three Lions will avenge their 2022 quarter-final defeat to the French by winning the final.

But it won’t be a simple route to the final. Along the way, England are fancied to beat Ivory Coast in the round of 32, Mexico in the round of 16, Brazil in the quarter-finals and reigning world champions Argentina in the semi-finals before beating France. That would represent one of the most difficult routes to World Cup glory in the tournament’s entire 96-year history.

On the opposite side of the draw, France are projected to overcome Turkey in the round of 32, Germany in the round of 16, the Netherlands in the quarter-finals and Spain in the semi-finals.

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Elsewhere, co-hosts the United States are expected to beat Sweden in the first knockout round before falling to Belgium in the last 16. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal are predicted to fall in the quarter-finals after beating Ghana and Switzerland.

Steve Clarke’s Scotland are tipped to make it into the knockouts for the first time in the nation’s history, but, per the supercomputer, will fall to Mexico in Mexico City. The Scots are given a 6.20% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, 1.80% odds to reach the semi-finals and a tiny 0.50% chance of reaching the final. Their odds of winning the World Cup are put at 0.10%.

FindSisterSites’ supercomputer is a probability model which is not determined by human predictions or bias. The supercomputer estimates the outcome of each fixture based on a team’s current strength (using factors such as international ranking position and form) and betting market odds.

The machine simulated the World Cup 10,000 times and then constructed an average from the 10,000 simulations to rule out any anomalous results.

Match 1: Czech Republic (Runner-up A) vs Canada (Runner-up B)

Match 2: Brazil (Winner C) vs Japan (Runner-up F)

Match 3: Germany (Winner E) vs South Korea (3rd Group A)

Match 4: Netherlands (Winner F) vs Morocco (Runner-up C)

Match 5: Ecuador (Runner-up E) vs Senegal (Runner-up I)

Match 6: France (Winner I) vs Turkey (3rd Group D)

Match 7: Mexico (Winner A) vs Scotland (3rd Group C)

Match 8: England (Winner L) vs Ivory Coast (3rd Group E)

Match 9: Belgium (Winner G) vs Algeria (3rd Group J)

Match 10: United States (Winner D) vs Sweden (3rd Group F)

Match 11: Spain (Winner H) vs Austria (Runner-up J)

Match 12: Colombia (Runner-up K) vs Croatia (Runner-up L)

Match 13: Switzerland (Winner B) vs Norway (3rd Group I)

Match 14: Australia (Runner-up D) vs Egypt (Runner-up G)

Match 15: Argentina (Winner J) vs Uruguay (Runner-up H)

Match 16: Portugal (Winner K) vs Ghana (3rd Group L)

Match 1: Czech Republic (Winner RO32 M1) vs Netherlands (Winner RO32 M4)

Match 2: Germany (Winner RO32 M3) vs France (Winner RO32 M6)

Match 3: Brazil (Winner RO32 M2) vs Senegal (Winner RO32 M5)

Match 4: Mexico (Winner RO32 M7) vs England (Winner RO32 M8)

Match 5: Colombia (Winner RO32 M12) vs Spain (Winner RO32 M11)

Match 6: United States (Winner RO32 M10) vs Belgium (Winner RO32 M9)

Match 7: Argentina (Winner RO32 M15) vs Australia (Winner RO32 M14)

Match 8: Switzerland (Winner RO32 M13) vs Portugal (Winner RO32 M16)

QF 1: France (Winner RO16 M2) vs Netherlands (Winner RO16 M1)

QF 2: Spain (Winner RO16 M5) vs Belgium (Winner RO16 M6)

QF 3: Brazil (Winner RO16 M3) vs England (Winner RO16 M4)

QF 4: Argentina (Winner RO16 M7) vs Portugal (Winner RO16 M8)

SF 1: France (Winner QF 1) vs Spain (Winner QF 2)

SF 2: England (Winner QF 3) vs Argentina (Winner QF 4)

France (Winner SF 1) vs England (Winner SF 2)

Projected World Cup Winner: England