Trump’s just wandered into a fight for his life – he doesn’t know what’s about to hit him | World | News
Trump seemingly enjoys UFC but he is struggling to get out of his latest fight (Image: Getty)
There was something quite odd about seeing the US president strutting to his ringside seat at the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) this weekend. As Donald Trump was soaking up the limelight like a champion prizefighter, negotiations to end the war in Iran that had caused such damage to his country hung in the balance. Ultimately, they failed.
It is unclear how much of a fan Trump is of the UFC. It seems more likely that he is an opportunistic supporter who relishes the support from young men that the sport has helped him to garner. But perhaps hours spent watching fighters refuse to take a backwards step, continuing to swing wildly despite the punishment they have taken, has rubbed off on the current resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
In the hours following his attendance, Trump announced a naval blockade on Iran, a further escalation by a leader bloodied, cornered and losing on points. Perhaps it will be the catalyst for an unlikely victory, but more likely, it could see him dealt a knockout blow, or his corner throws in the towel on his behalf before it gets that far.
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Trump was criticised for the appearance as negotiations took place in Pakistan. (Image: Getty)
Iran’s leveraging of its geographic location has allowed it to choke global oil supplies in the Strait of Hormuz and threatens to use rising fuel prices to outlast the Americans’ will to fight on. After attempts to get Europe to sort out the completely foreseeable mess fell on deaf ears and the prospect of taking a backwards step in negotiations was ruled unpalatable, Trump has, in typical fashion, decided to up the ante.
A naval blockade is defined in US military doctrine as a “belligerent operation to prevent vessels and/or aircraft of all states, enemy and neutral, from entering or exiting specified ports, airfields, or coastal areas belonging to, occupied by, or under the control of an enemy state”.
In theory, the move would prevent the transit of Iranian oil, which has been able to pass with little obstruction since the conflict started, in an attempt to starve the regime in Tehran of vital revenues to fund its war economy and extensive security apparatus. In reality, the situation is much more complex.
The blockade will ‘encompass the entirety of the Iranian coastline’ (Image: Getty)
It is unclear whether the US has the ability to fulfil its obligations worldwide and enforce a naval blockade of the entire Iranian coastline. That said, even the threat of one in four ships being seized and losing their cargo could be enough to have a significant impact on Tehran.
The regime in Tehran, like many bloody dictatorships, is less concerned with the effects on the civilian population of external sanctions and enforced measures. Depleted revenues sting but do not cause the kind of pressure in the short term faced by elected officials in Western democracies.
The one inevitable consequence of a naval blockade is that global oil prices will rise more quickly and further. In that instance, success or defeat will come down to who blinks first. If this war has demonstrated anything so far, it is Iran’s ability to take punishment and withstand the might of the strongest military in the world. In boxing terms, you would say “they have a strong chin”.
Trump is swinging around the ring like a punch-drunk, out-of-shape journeyman who is close to the limit of what he can endure. A botched naval blockade could be the knockout blow. Even then, though, Trump would get up from the canvas and claim that he won on points and was robbed by the judges.
