Bank’s ‘critical’ decision on Thursday ‘could reverse cuts in days’ | Personal Finance | Finance

Experts have cautioned that a crucial decision being taken on Thursday, April 30, 2026, could ‘reverse’ cuts made over recent weeks. Mortgage brokers have cautioned that a divided vote or minor details within a set of minutes from Thursday’s critical Bank of England rate decision could witness the mortgage rate reductions of the past fortnight or so reversed, even if, as anticipated, the base rate remains unchanged.

Most predict the Monetary Policy Committee will maintain rates at 3.75% on Thursday, as the Bank of England is not only grappling with rising inflation stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, but a weakening economy where business confidence is at rock bottom.

However, experts stated that even if maintaining rates is the outcome, mortgage rates could still climb northwards again should markets believe policymakers view inflation as a greater threat than previously considered.

Shaun Sturgess, director of Swansea-based Sturgess Mortgage Solutions, said: “Even if, as expected, Thursday’s decision is a hold, lenders will be going through the minutes in forensic detail. If markets believe that the base rate looks set to be increased in future meetings, then swap rates, which are used to price fixed-rate mortgages, could once again start to rise.

“If that happens, the cuts of the past fortnight or so could be quickly reversed. This could all happen very quickly and borrowers should be aware that the best rates currently available could be gone in a matter of days if lenders don’t like what they see in the minutes or the vote split.”

Richard Davidson, mortgage advisor at onlinemortgageadvisor.co.uk, agreed: “With no move expected and a lack of clarity in the markets, the words and vote numbers from Thursday’s meeting will be critical. Sentiment is brittle, so any pessimism may be taken as a sign we are not through the uncertainty and we could see that priced into mortgage rates within the next few days.”

Tracey Dixon, owner at Cardiff-based Pure Mortgage and Protection, likewise anticipates the Bank of England will hold rates steady, though she cautioned borrowers against attempting to time the market: “For borrowers, waiting for the perfect moment rarely works. The market is already shifting, and the best opportunities often come before the headlines catch up.”

However, property specialist Babek Ismayil, CEO at homebuying platform OneDome, suggested that even if the Bank of England adopted a hawkish stance and mortgage rates began climbing once more, such conditions would empower buyers to negotiate more aggressively on price.

He said: “The uncertainty around mortgage rates over the past eight weeks has created a strong environment for buyers to negotiate hard with sellers and snap up property at a much reduced price.

“People need to remember that securing a competitive price for a property can often mitigate the impact of higher mortgage rates, which they can remortgage off in the years ahead anyway.

“So if mortgage rates do rise again, so will the negotiating power of buyers.”